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The NBA regular season starts one week from today, which makes this a perfect time to preview some individual-player storylines.
Which unexpected players could contend for the Most Valuable Player award? Who has the most to prove? And who is poised for a comeback?
Looking ahead to the season, The Athletic has assembled three of its NBA writers: William Guillory, who covers the Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans; Law Murray, who is based in Los Angeles and writes a weekly Power Rankings column and our annual Player Tiers column; and Josh Robbins, who covers the Orlando Magic, Washington Wizards and the league as a whole.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokić and Luka Dončić appear to be the preseason favorites to win the 2025-26 NBA Most Valuable Player award. That makes sense. Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning MVP and just won his first NBA title. Jokić has won the award in three of the last five seasons and is still in his prime. Dončić is said to be in great shape and plays for one of the league’s most glamorous teams.
But aside from that trio, who is a player primed to contend for the award?
William Guillory: My pick would be Jalen Brunson. He just led the New York Knicks to the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since 2000, and the East will be much easier to navigate this season with the Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks each expected to take a step back. The East had two 60-win teams last season (Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston), and the best player on each of those teams finished top five in MVP voting.
The Knicks could certainly take a step forward and become a 60-win team with much of last year’s roster returning and a full offseason to build on everything they accomplished last year. New head coach Mike Brown should also bring in some modern offensive concepts that will put Brunson in position to be more efficient.
Brunson was also the Clutch Player of the Year last season. If he can string together some big fourth-quarter performances on a 60-win Knicks team, the New York hype machine will do whatever it takes to make sure Brunson is at the forefront of the MVP discussion.
Law Murray: It better be Anthony Edwards. He’s arguably the top shooting guard in the Association, he’s only 24 years old, he has played in back-to-back Western Conference finals and he is going to be asked to do a lot on both ends of the floor. Edwards is certainly built for MVP usage and narrative. He also has another level to reach in terms of consistent production regarding the 2024-25 MVP finalists. The Timberwolves need Edwards to be great in order to build on the last two seasons. If Edwards takes that next step in 2025-26, then he could win the Michael Jordan Trophy.
Josh Robbins: In the last 25 seasons, players whose teams finished the regular season first or second in their conference won the NBA MVP award 21 times. In 2016-17, Russell Westbrook won despite his Oklahoma City Thunder finishing sixth in the West; Westbrook that year became the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple-double for an entire season. Jokić won in 2020-21 and 2021-22, despite his Denver Nuggets finishing third and sixth, respectively. And Joel Embiid won in 2022-23 as his Philadelphia 76ers placed third in the East, but Embiid captured the scoring title.
I say all this because the past winners allow us to draw one broad conclusion: To win NBA MVP, you most likely have to be the best player on a first- or second-place team, or you need to have a season of outstanding individual accomplishment. Victor Wembanyama has the talent for a standout individual season, including winning NBA Defensive Player of the Year, but will he remain healthy enough to meet the 65 games-played requirement, and will his San Antonio Spurs be relevant in the loaded West this season?
Will’s choice of Brunson and Law’s choice of Edwards are great selections given the parameters of this question.
I’m going to hone in on Donovan Mitchell, because I think his Cavaliers will finish the regular season first in the East. He placed fifth in last season’s MVP voting, and he’s in his prime years.
Which NBA player has the most to prove heading into this season?
Murray: Mitchell is that player for me. He actually earned an All-NBA First Team nod for his (and his team’s) excellent 2024-25 season. But just like every season in Mitchell’s career to this point, his team failed to win multiple playoff series. While Mitchell is still looking for his first conference-finals appearance, the other four 2024-25 All-NBA First Team selections have won a championship. Mitchell is squarely in his prime at 29 years old, but this might be the last time Cleveland has a team this special (and in a conference this thin) with Mitchell leading it.
Guillory: I’d have to agree that it’s Mitchell, and I’d like to throw out one stat: There are six players in NBA history who have played 60-plus playoff games and averaged at least 28 points per game in the postseason: LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Jerry West, Kevin Durant, Allen Iverson and Mitchell.
If Mitchell can, at the very least, get Cleveland back to the conference finals, he has a chance to cement himself among the top postseason performers in the history of the game. He’s done it his entire career. He just hasn’t been able to get past the second round (which Iverson did only once in his career, by the way). However, one of the main differences between Iverson and Mitchell is that Iverson fans can always look to his iconic run to the 2001 NBA Finals as the shining moment of his career.
Mitchell still doesn’t have his moment yet. And maybe he never will at that level. But until then, people won’t give him the credit he deserves for his consistent production in the regular season, or the way he raises his level of play when the lights get bright.
Robbins: Joel Embiid, hands down. No one doubts his production when he’s healthy enough to play. He’s a former MVP, a two-time scoring champ and someone who has been a defensive force. The key here is the phrase “healthy enough to play.” I’m not faulting him; I’m merely saying he’s dealt with stubborn, very real injuries.
He appeared in 39 games two seasons ago and just 19 games last season. If he cannot play 60-plus games and be close to his best at playoff time, the scrutiny on him — already sky high — will increase. Few teams can withstand an extended absence of their best player. The 76ers need their former league MVP.
Name one player who is relatively under the radar — maybe someone not an All-Star or a leaguewide star — who is such an important X-factor that he will play a huge role in his team’s success or failure this season.
Guillory: This might be cheating a little bit, but I have to choose Amen Thompson. After two NBA seasons, he’s already evolved into one of the most disruptive defensive players in the game, and his role on this year’s Rockets will be even larger after Fred VanVleet suffered a torn ACL less than two weeks before the start of training camp.
Thompson may end up operating as the starting point guard for a large chunk of the season while leading a Houston team that has serious championship aspirations with Kevin Durant in the building. But even if KD wasn’t in Houston and VanVleet was healthy, Thompson would still be a huge part of Houston’s offensive identity, because his explosive athleticism allows him to get to the rim almost anytime he wants.
Whether it’s in transition or while he’s attacking someone one-on-one, Thompson is going to live in the paint this season. He’s got a chance to become one of the best two-way players in the NBA if his offensive game keeps developing. It’s only a matter of time before we see him in an All-Star Game.
Murray: I’m bending the star definition here and dropping Franz Wagner into the chat. He hasn’t made an All-Star team, and he’s not an All-NBA player, but the Orlando Magic paid Wagner like a star, and he was absolutely headed to All-Star status before being sidetracked by a torn oblique. Wagner is a big wing who plays both ends of the floor well, and the Magic were the best defense in the NBA outside of Oklahoma City last season. If Wagner can figure out his 3-point stroke and continue to produce next to Paolo Banchero, then the Magic could break through in the East.
Robbins: Cam Johnson will be a critical role player in Denver, and he could help edge the Nuggets over Oklahoma City in a potential postseason rematch. The Nuggets pushed the Thunder to seven games in their second-round series in May, and one of the Nuggets’ weaknesses in that series was their 3-point shooting. This explains why Denver traded for Johnson during the offseason; surrounding Jokić with 3-point shooters makes Jokić more dangerous. Johnson is a 39 percent career 3-point shooter, and he’ll receive a bunch of wide-open looks alongside Jokić. Once Johnson acclimates to his new team, he could exceed 40 percent 3-point shooting.
Aside from Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper, which NBA rookie intrigues you the most, and why?
Guillory: I just can’t wait to see the contrast in personality and style of play when Kon Knueppel and LaMelo Ball take the court for the first time.
One of the reasons I really like Knueppel as a prospect is that he’s so fundamentally sound in just about every aspect of his offensive game. He doesn’t feel the need to put any extra flash on what he does. He just gets the job done.
Meanwhile, Ball is the walking, breathing embodiment of extra flash on the court. He provides just about everything young TikTokers want to see from their favorite NBA players.
Ultimately, I think Ball and Knueppel will fit together well. They’re both unselfish, and they each shoot it at a high level. It’s just going to be hilarious watching Knueppel hit a reverse pivot bank shot on one possession, followed by Ball tossing up a 30-footer off one leg with his eyes closed.
Murray: Insert Brooklyn Nets point guard here. I guess we’ll go with Egor Dёmin, the Nets’ lone lottery pick (selected eighth in the 2025 NBA Draft). But this is a team rostering five first-round picks. How many times do you see a team use extra draft picks in a round just to stash a player, or do whatever it takes to trade the pick during the draft? Not the Nets. They used them all, and with their lack of incentive to win games this year, it behooves them to put the ball in the hands of the youth. I’m interested to see how the Nets use all of these players — particularly Dёmin, who could be the starter responsible for getting Cam Thomas and Michael Porter Jr. shots.
Robbins: Ace Bailey of the Utah Jazz fascinates me. His ceiling, as The Athletic’s draft guide put it, is as the second-best player in the 2025 draft class if he can iron out the kinks within his game. But if he’s such a great talent, and if Harper is such a great talent, why did their Rutgers Scarlet Knights finish with a losing record during their one-and-done season?
Bailey is a gifted scorer, and yet, during his year at Rutgers, he settled for bad shots. I don’t expect any rookie, particularly someone who is only 19, to be a refined player early in his career; that’s not a fair expectation. It’s that growth process, along with his potential, that makes Bailey so intriguing to me.
The NBA ended its Comeback Player of the Year award nearly 40 years ago. But comebacks remain a part of the sport. Which player who had a rough 2024-25 season do you think will stand out in the year ahead?
Guillory: The easy answer for me here would be Zion Williamson, but I’m going to steer away from that one. This might sound crazy two months from now, but are we sure Paul George is completely washed?
He averaged 22.6 points on 47/41/91 shooting splits in his final season with the LA Clippers. Then all of a sudden, his scoring plummeted to 16.2 points on 43/36/81 splits in his first season with the Sixers. Do we really think he fell off that drastically before he even turned 35?
Along with the struggles faced while adjusting to a new team, George played in only 41 games last season because of various injuries. It certainly isn’t encouraging that he’s already undergone an arthroscopic knee surgery before this season that’s limited him up to this point.
Considering how impactful George has been for such a long time, I find it hard to believe he doesn’t have at least one more good season left in him — even if he has to find a change of scenery to make it happen. Maybe his knees are so damaged at this point that there’s no turning back, but I’m willing to bet he can put it all together at least one more time.
Murray: Last season, there were 102 players who averaged at least 30 minutes per game. None of them played fewer games than Brandon Ingram. (No, not even Embiid!) Ingram played in 18 of the first 24 games for a Pelicans team that started 5-19. He never played for the Pelicans again, missing the rest of the season with a sprained ankle and getting traded in February to the Toronto Raptors. Ingram got a contract extension upon arriving in Canada, and now he has to figure out how to work with Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett, among other rotation-worthy wings. Ingram is one of 19 players who has averaged at least 20 points per game in each of the last six seasons, and surely, the Raptors are expecting him to debut with a similar output.
Robbins: Has any player’s perceived value cratered over the last four years as much as Bradley Beal’s? In 2021, Beal’s play was thought of so highly that he was slated to be part of the U.S. Olympic team before a bout of COVID forced him to sit out. In 2022, he signed a five-year, $251 million contract extension to remain with the Washington Wizards, and that contract, with its no-trade clause, is now known as one of the worst deals in recent NBA history. Beal also hasn’t played in more than 53 games in any of the last four seasons, and he’s coming off a disappointing two-year run with the Phoenix Suns.
He has a new chance at pursuing team greatness. The Clippers signed him to a two-year, $11 million contract during the offseason, hoping that he can give their league-average offense the scoring and creativity needed in a playoff series. He has a great opportunity on a veteran team for a comeback.
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